Fortaleza FC vs Cucuta

Fortaleza FC at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Cucuta on the road, with 6 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses from 23 home matches versus Cucuta’s 3 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses from 21 away matches. Fortaleza also has a better goal profile, scoring 26 and conceding 31 at home, while Cucuta scores 24 and concedes 41 away, suggesting Fortaleza is more likely to control the game at least enough to avoid defeat. The recent form leans toward Fortaleza as well. Fortaleza’s last five results are WDDLW, which includes two wins and two draws, while Cucuta’s last five are LDLLD, with only one win and three losses. That difference aligns with the probabilities showing a higher chance of a Fortaleza win than a draw or an away win. On goals, the matchup points to moderate scoring. Fortaleza’s home defense has produced 5 clean sheets, but their overall conceded total is still 31, while Cucuta’s away defense has been leaky with 41 conceded and only 3 clean sheets. With over 2.5 goals at 53.7% and both teams to score at 54.6%, the game looks more like a competitive match with goals rather than a low-scoring shutout. Overall, the home win call fits the combined edge in record, goal concession, and recent form, though the draw probability (22.6%) and Cucuta’s ability to score (24 away goals) keep the outcome from looking fully one-sided.