Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo SP
Wed, Jul 29, 12:35 AMEstádio Governador Plácido Castelo
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk
Home Win
Fortaleza EC (WWLWL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1 for Botafogo SP (LWDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 66/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
66/100
Confidence
66/100
Head-to-Head
Fortaleza EC 1-0 Botafogo SP
2026-07-29T02:35:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Botafogo SP 4-0 Fortaleza EC
2026-03-21T23:15:00+01:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
AI Reasoning
Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Fortaleza EC vs Botafogo SP.
Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability.
Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed.
Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Recorded forecast
Final score
1-0
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 50.2% → Won
Ranked probability score
0.1505 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Tue, 28 Jul 2026 23:21 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.4. Counted in the public track record.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
