Flamengo vs Vitoria

Flamengo’s home record is stronger than Vitoria’s away record, with Flamengo at 11W-6D-3L versus Vitoria’s 7W-5D-9L. Flamengo also has a clear edge in goal difference at this stage, scoring 37 and conceding 18, while Vitoria scores 22 and concedes 31. The recent form points in Flamengo’s favor as well. Flamengo’s latest run is LWWDD, while Vitoria’s is LWDLL, suggesting Flamengo has been more consistent in avoiding defeats and creating better results recently. On match outcome, the probabilities lean toward Flamengo, with home win at 65.4% compared with 20.9% for a draw and 13.7% for an away win. For goals, over 2.5 is slightly more likely than not at 52.4%, and both teams to score is close to even at 50.4%, so a tight game with some scoring is plausible rather than guaranteed. Overall, the medium risk aligns with the relatively modest edge in goal-based expectations, even though Flamengo’s stronger home performance and better defensive record support the home win lean.