FK Jablonec vs Rīgas FS
2–0Full timeThu, Aug 6, 04:00 PMStadion Strelnice
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
FK Jablonec (LW) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1 for Rīgas FS (LD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
35/100
Confidence
35/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Jablonec at home has the stronger short sample, with 1 win in 2 matches and a better goal record of 4 scored versus 3 conceded. They also have a clean sheet in their two home games, which supports the idea that they can limit Rīgas FS even if the match is not one-sided.
Rīgas FS away has been less convincing, with no wins in 2 matches and only 2 goals scored while conceding 3. Their recent form includes a draw and a loss, and they have not produced a clean sheet in this small set of away games.
The overall goal indicators are mixed rather than dominant: both teams to score is slightly more likely than not (50.9%), and over 2.5 goals is below the halfway mark (47.9%). That aligns with a home edge in match result, but with enough uncertainty that a draw or a lower-scoring game remains plausible.
So a home win is the lean, but the confidence is modest (35) and the risk is high, reflecting the limited sample size and the fairly even chance of both teams finding goals.
Recorded forecast
Final score
2-0
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 41.8% → Won
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
