Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz

Fenerbahçe at home has a slightly stronger overall profile in this sample, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses across 4 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5. They also have 1 clean sheet, which helps support the idea that they can avoid a heavy defeat even if results have been mixed. Sturm Graz away has fewer matches to judge, but their record is 1 win and 1 loss with 2 goals scored and 6 conceded. With 0 clean sheets, their defensive output looks less stable on the road, which aligns with the home side being favored. The market-style probabilities point to a home win as the most likely single outcome (54.2%) versus a draw (24.9%) or an away win (20.9%). At the same time, the confidence is moderate and the risk is high, since Fenerbahçe’s record includes two losses and the away team is not completely out of contention. For goals, over 2.5 is only slightly favored (50.3%), and both teams to score is more likely than not (52.7%). That suggests a home win is plausible, but a close, relatively open game where Sturm Graz still finds chances is also consistent with the provided stats.