FC Porto vs Alverca

FC Porto’s home record is strong, with 28 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 losses from 34 matches, plus 21 clean sheets. They’ve scored 66 goals and conceded just 18 at home, which points to a solid ability to control games and limit chances. Alverca’s away performance looks tougher, with 10 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, and they’ve scored 35 while conceding 52. Their recent form is also mixed-to-weak (LWLDL), and they have only 6 clean sheets overall, suggesting they may struggle to keep Porto from scoring. The goal outlook is fairly balanced rather than one-sided. Over 2.5 goals is slightly more likely than not at 51.9%, and both teams to score is at 43.8%, so Porto can win without it necessarily becoming a high-scoring, two-way match. With home win priced as the most likely outcome (74.8%) but confidence only moderate (54) and risk marked high, the main case is Porto edging the result, while the uncertainty comes from the relatively modest overall goal probabilities.