FC Lugano vs FC Zurich

FC Lugano at home has a stronger overall profile than FC Zurich away, with Lugano recording 19 wins versus Zurich’s 11 away wins and a better goal difference (Lugano 59 scored, 42 conceded; Zurich 49 scored, 72 conceded). Lugano also has more defensive stability, with 12 clean sheets compared with Zurich’s 2. In recent form, Lugano’s sequence includes two wins and a draw in the last five results (WWLDW), while Zurich’s last five are more subdued with only one win and four losses (LDWLL). That combination supports the idea that Lugano can control the match more often than not. The goal-related indicators lean toward a moderate chance of an open game: over 2.5 goals is estimated at 58.2%, and both teams to score at 55.7%. With Zurich conceding 72 across the season and keeping only 2 clean sheets, Lugano’s scoring opportunities look plausible, though Zurich’s ability to score isn’t negligible. The home win lean is reflected in the probabilities (65.0% home win), but the confidence is only 53 with a high risk level, suggesting the margin isn’t large and outcomes like a draw remain realistic (20.2%).