FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne

Basel at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Lausanne away, with Basel 16W 8D 14L at home versus Lausanne’s 11W 9D 18L away. Basel also have a marginally better goal profile, scoring 55 and conceding 58, while Lausanne score 53 and concede 67, suggesting Basel are more likely to keep the match under control. Recent form is mixed for both sides, but Basel’s sequence includes one win while Lausanne’s recent run is weaker overall (Basel LWLLL versus Lausanne WLLLL). That difference, combined with Basel’s better defensive concession rate, supports a home-leaning outcome rather than a draw or away win. The goal indicators point to a match with some scoring. Basel and Lausanne both have relatively high concession totals across the season, and the probabilities provided favor over 2.5 goals (58.8%) and both teams to score (60.3%), which fits a scenario where Basel can edge the result without necessarily dominating. With home win at 52.2% and draw at 23.7%, the home win case is only modestly ahead, so the confidence is limited (55) and the risk is high. The most likely pattern is Basel edging it, but the scoring likelihood means the match could swing if Lausanne find chances.