FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun

Basel have been inconsistent recently, with their last five results reading LWLLL, and they’ve scored 55 goals while conceding 58 across the season. Thun’s away record is stronger overall, but their latest run is also poor, with four straight losses before a draw, and they’ve scored 80 while conceding 52. The matchup profile points toward goals at both ends. Thun’s season scoring output is relatively high compared with their conceded goals, while Basel’s defense has been leaky enough that Thun should have chances. With both teams’ season goal totals suggesting they can score, the both teams to score probability sits at 62.8%. Over 2.5 goals also looks plausible at 60.1%, which aligns with Basel conceding 58 and Thun’s ability to put up 80 goals. The draw is not the most dominant outcome, but the close home win and away win rates (38.6% vs 36.1%) suggest a game that could swing either way rather than a clear one-sided result. Given Basel’s recent form and the overall closeness of win probabilities, the BTTS Yes call carries high risk, reflected in the 49 confidence score.