Estrella de Berisso vs Provincial

Estrella de Berisso has a slightly stronger overall record at home, with 4 wins in 10 matches compared to Provincial’s 2 wins in 9 away matches. The home side also has a better goal balance, scoring 13 and conceding 12, while Provincial has scored 7 and conceded 17, suggesting Estrella de Berisso is more likely to create and convert chances. The recent form leans toward Estrella de Berisso as well, with their sequence LLLWW indicating a recent improvement after a rough patch. Provincial’s recent form LDWLL is more consistently poor, and their low scoring output in those results aligns with their season total of just 7 goals. For match outcome, the probabilities point to Estrella de Berisso having the edge, with a 57.0% chance of a home win versus 18.9% for Provincial and 24.1% for a draw. The confidence is moderate rather than high, since Provincial’s clean sheets are not negligible (3), and the away side can still keep games tight. On goals, the model sits just above a coin-flip for over 2.5 goals (50.3%) and slightly favors both teams to score (51.9%). That combination suggests a fairly balanced scoring script, but with Estrella de Berisso more likely to be the side that edges the result.