UEFA Europa League
Pre-match
High risk

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Shamrock Rovers

Thu, Aug 13, 07:00 PMArena Egnatia

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 44/100

Model verdict
High risk

Away Win

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (L) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.4 for Shamrock Rovers (W). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 44/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

44/100

Confidence
44/100

Strongest cover

12

75.1% probability

Risk classification

High

24.9% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

ER win27.9%
Draw24.9%
SR win47.2%

Goals

Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0/3 recent form points

L
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Shamrock Rovers

3/3 recent form points

W
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

2026-08-04T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Shamrock Rovers have the stronger start in this sample, with a 1W record away and 3 goals scored versus 1 conceded. Egnatia Rrogozhinë’s home record here is 0W 0D 1L, with 1 goal scored and 3 conceded, suggesting they’ve struggled to keep opponents out. The win probabilities lean toward Shamrock Rovers, with away win at 47.2% compared with 27.9% for Egnatia and 24.9% for a draw. That gap supports an away win lean, though the draw remains close enough to keep the outcome uncertain. Goal expectations also point slightly toward a more open game. Over 2.5 goals is at 47.6%, and both teams to score is at 53.1%, aligning with the early pattern of goals conceded by Egnatia and the ability of Shamrock to find the net. Given the very small number of matches (one each), the confidence is limited, so the away win call is best treated as a higher-risk lean rather than a firm expectation.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 12 Aug 2026 09:35 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Egnatia Rrogozhinë predictions · Shamrock Rovers predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.