Dinamo Zagreb vs Kauno Žalgiris

Dinamo Zagreb at home have a solid start in this small sample, going 1W 1D with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded across 2 matches. Their recent form shows a win followed by a draw, suggesting they can avoid losing but have not been consistently keeping clean sheets, with 0 clean sheets so far. Kauno Žalgiris are unbeaten away in this set, with 2W 2D from 4 matches and 5 goals scored versus 3 conceded. They also have 2 clean sheets, which points to stronger defensive control than Dinamo have shown at home, even though their scoring output is modest. The market-style probabilities lean slightly toward a Dinamo home result (45.2% home win versus 27.7% draw and 27.1% away win), but the draw remains fairly plausible given Dinamo’s 1D and Kauno’s unbeaten record. Both teams to score is just above even at 50.1%, aligning with Dinamo conceding in their home matches and Kauno’s ability to keep some games tight rather than shutouts every time. For goals, over 2.5 is at 44.3%, which is below a coin-flip, so a lower-scoring or tightly contested game is more likely than a high-scoring one. Overall, the home win call fits the slight edge in the win probabilities, but the medium risk reflects Kauno’s unbeaten away form and defensive clean-sheet rate.