Derry City vs HNK Rijeka
0–1Full timeThu, Jul 30, 05:30 PMBrandywell Stadium
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Under 2.5 Goals
Derry City (L) project at 1 expected goals versus 1.1 for HNK Rijeka (DWWLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
35/100
Confidence
35/100
Head-to-Head
HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City
2026-07-23T20:45:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
AI Reasoning
Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Under 2.5 Goals lean for Derry City vs HNK Rijeka.
Data angle: team strength uses the 2026 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped.
Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed.
Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Recorded forecast
Final score
0-1
Pre-kickoff call
Under 2.5 Goals · 64.6% → Won
Ranked probability score
0.193 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Thu, 30 Jul 2026 09:29 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.5. Counted in the public track record.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
