Deportivo Riestra vs Barracas Central

Deportivo Riestra at home have scored 9 goals in 18 matches and conceded 14, with 7 clean sheets, which points to relatively low scoring output and some defensive stability. Their recent form is mixed (LWDWL), but the overall home scoring rate remains modest. Barracas Central away have scored 17 and conceded 15 across 18 matches, with 6 clean sheets. Their recent form (DDLWW) includes two wins, but the season totals suggest they can score, while still allowing enough goals that matches may not always stay tight. With both sides showing limited scoring at the season level for Riestra, and only moderate scoring for Barracas, the balance leans toward fewer goals rather than a high-scoring game. The probabilities also align with this lean, with over 2.5 goals at 28.6% and both teams to score at 37.5%, suggesting a reasonable chance of a match that doesn’t produce many goals. This is a higher-risk call because the draw and either side winning are all close in probability, and Barracas have enough attacking output to keep the game from being fully one-sided. Still, the under 2.5 goals profile fits the season goal totals and clean-sheet counts better than the over.