Deportivo Recoleta vs Nacional Asuncion

Deportivo Recoleta at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Nacional Asuncion away, with 9W 5D 8L at home versus 9W 8D 5L away. Recoleta’s goal profile is also more balanced than it looks at first glance, scoring 35 and conceding 30, while Nacional Asuncion concedes far less on the road (17 conceded) and keeps more clean sheets (10 away clean sheets). The recent form leans toward Nacional Asuncion more often avoiding defeat, with their sequence LDWWD including two wins and a draw, while Recoleta’s recent run is more mixed (DWLWD). That said, Recoleta’s home clean sheets are still respectable at 6, and their goal scoring (35) suggests they can create enough chances to compete. The market signals a fairly even match: home win is 41.3% with draws at 28.3% and away win at 30.4%, which supports a cautious home-lean rather than a strong conviction. Both teams to score is also slightly favored at 50.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 44.9% is not dominant, so the most likely script is competitive with room for a narrow outcome. Overall, the home win call fits the modest edge in Recoleta’s home results, but the confidence is low (52) and the risk is high because Nacional Asuncion’s defensive record away and clean-sheet rate are strong enough to keep the match uncertain.