CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Finished
Medium risk

Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors result & prediction review

0–4Full time
Tue, Aug 18, 10:00 PMEstadio Defensores del Chaco

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 64/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

Away Win

Deportivo Recoleta (DDWLL) project at 0.8 expected goals versus 1.3 for Boca Juniors (DWWWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 64/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

64/100

Confidence
64/100

Strongest cover

X2

80.7% probability

Risk classification

Medium

28.9% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

DR win19.3%
Draw28.9%
BJ win51.8%

Goals

Over 1.561%
Over 2.533.2%
Under 2.566.8%

Both teams to score

Yes39%
No61%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Deportivo Recoleta

5/15 recent form points

DDWLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Boca Juniors

11/15 recent form points

DWWWD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.83
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Deportivo Recoleta 0-4 Boca Juniors

2026-08-19T00:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Boca Juniors 3-1 Deportivo Recoleta

2026-08-12T00:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Away Win lean for Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca Juniors. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-4

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 67.7% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2168 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Tue, 18 Aug 2026 18:45 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Deportivo Recoleta predictions · Boca Juniors predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.