Deportivo Maldonado vs Racing Montevideo

Deportivo Maldonado at home has a stronger overall record than Racing Montevideo away, with 12 wins from 22 matches compared with 11 wins from 22. Their goal profile is also more favorable, scoring 36 and conceding 22, which supports the home win lean despite Racing’s solid away results. Racing Montevideo’s defense looks relatively strong, conceding 17 and keeping 9 clean sheets, which helps explain why the away win probability is not negligible. Still, their scoring output is lower than Deportivo Maldonado’s (27 vs 36), and that gap aligns with the home side being more likely to edge the match. Recent form is mixed for both teams, with Deportivo Maldonado showing a streak of WWDLD and Racing Montevideo DDDLW. That kind of volatility fits the medium risk level and the relatively high draw probability, even while the home win remains the most likely single outcome. For goals, the match is slightly more likely to stay under 2.5 than to exceed it (42.8% over 2.5). Both teams to score is also close to a coin flip (48.3%), which suggests a competitive game where Deportivo Maldonado may win but not necessarily in a high-scoring way.