Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV Moquegua

Deportivo Garcilaso at home has a stronger overall record than UCV Moquegua, with 10 wins in 21 matches compared to UCV’s 5 wins in 21. Garcilaso also has the better goal profile, scoring 26 and conceding 20, while UCV scores 19 and concedes 28, suggesting Garcilaso is more likely to create and convert chances at home. The recent form supports this lean: Garcilaso’s sequence is WLWWW, while UCV’s is LDDDL, which points to more difficulty for the away side in turning matches into results. That combination aligns with the home win probability being the highest at 62.1%, with a draw still a meaningful possibility at 23.0%. For goals, the match is more balanced than one-sided. Over 2.5 goals is at 44.5% and both teams to score is 46.0%, which implies the game could be relatively tight and not guaranteed to produce frequent scoring from both sides. With a 68 confidence score and medium risk, the home win looks like the most reasonable outcome, but the moderate draw and low away-win likelihood mean it’s not a lock, especially given the under-2.5 lean implied by the goal probabilities.