Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin

Deportes Tolima at home has a stronger overall record than Independiente Medellin on the road, with Tolima 12W-7D-6L versus Medellin 9W-5D-7L. Tolima also has the better goal profile, scoring 35 and conceding 23, while Medellin scores 30 and concedes 26, which supports a slight edge for Tolima in match outcome. The recent form is mixed for both sides, but Tolima’s sequence includes two wins at the end (WLLWW), while Medellin’s is more balanced with wins and losses (WWLWW). Medellin’s away clean sheets are lower (6) than Tolima’s home clean sheets (9), which aligns with the home side being more likely to control the game. For goals, the matchup leans toward a moderate scoring expectation, with both teams to score at 51.3% and over 2.5 goals at 47.1%. That suggests the game could be fairly open, but not overwhelmingly so, keeping the away win possibility present. Overall, the home win call fits the small statistical advantages for Tolima in record, goal difference, and clean sheets, but the draw and away win probabilities are still substantial, so the confidence is not high and the risk is medium.