Dep. Santo Domingo (DWDLL) project at 1 expected goals versus 0.9 for 9 de Octubre (WDDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 66/100 confidence with high risk.
Confidence
66/100
9 de Octubre 1-0 Santo Domingo
2026-05-10T20:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
| Market | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home 1X2 | 2.70 | 37.03703703703704% | 32.7% | -4.3% |
Draw 1X2 | 2.50 | 40% | 34.6% | -5.4% |
Away |
This forecast was recorded on Wed, 29 Jul 2026 20:47 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
AI prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence 66/100
Strongest cover
1X
67.3% probability
Risk classification
High
34.6% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
45 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Dep. Santo Domingo
5/15 recent form points
9 de Octubre
9/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.
Price interpretation
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
| 2.88 |
| 34.72222222222222% |
| 32.7% |
| -2.0% |
Yes BTTS | 2.25 | 44.44444444444444% | 40.4% | -4.0% |
No BTTS | 1.57 | 63.69426751592356% | 59.6% | -4.1% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 1.35 | 74.07407407407408% | 0.0% | -74.1% |
Home or Away Double Chance | 1.44 | 69.44444444444444% | 0.0% | -69.4% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | 1.44 | 69.44444444444444% | 0.0% | -69.4% |
Home 1X2 | 2.91 | 34.36426116838488% | 32.7% | -1.7% |
Draw 1X2 | 2.61 | 38.31417624521073% | 34.6% | -3.7% |
Away 1X2 | 2.59 | 38.61003861003861% | 32.7% | -5.9% |
Over 2.5 Totals | 2.88 | 34.72222222222222% | 30.9% | -3.8% |
Under 2.5 Totals | 1.32 | 75.75757575757575% | 69.1% | -6.7% |
Yes BTTS | 2.27 | 44.052863436123346% | 40.4% | -3.7% |
No BTTS | 1.52 | 65.78947368421053% | 59.6% | -6.2% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 1.38 | 72.46376811594205% | 0.0% | -72.5% |
Home or Away Double Chance | 1.38 | 72.46376811594205% | 0.0% | -72.5% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | 1.31 | 76.33587786259541% | 0.0% | -76.3% |
Home 1X2 | 2.63 | 38.02281368821293% | 32.7% | -5.3% |
Draw 1X2 | 2.70 | 37.03703703703704% | 34.6% | -2.4% |
Away 1X2 | 2.75 | 36.36363636363637% | 32.7% | -3.7% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 1.36 | 73.52941176470587% | 0.0% | -73.5% |
Home or Away Double Chance | 1.36 | 73.52941176470587% | 0.0% | -73.5% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | 1.40 | 71.42857142857143% | 0.0% | -71.4% |
Home 1X2 | 2.61 | 38.31417624521073% | 32.7% | -5.6% |
Draw 1X2 | 2.62 | 38.167938931297705% | 34.6% | -3.6% |
Away 1X2 | 3.07 | 32.57328990228013% | 32.7% | +0.1% |
Over 2.5 Totals | 3.07 | 32.57328990228013% | 30.9% | -1.7% |
Under 2.5 Totals | 1.33 | 75.18796992481202% | 69.1% | -6.1% |
Home 1X2 | 2.91 | 34.36426116838488% | 32.7% | -1.7% |
Draw 1X2 | 2.61 | 38.31417624521073% | 34.6% | -3.7% |
Away 1X2 | 2.59 | 38.61003861003861% | 32.7% | -5.9% |
Over 2.5 Totals | 2.88 | 34.72222222222222% | 30.9% | -3.8% |
Under 2.5 Totals | 1.32 | 75.75757575757575% | 69.1% | -6.7% |
Yes BTTS | 2.27 | 44.052863436123346% | 40.4% | -3.7% |
No BTTS | 1.54 | 64.93506493506493% | 59.6% | -5.3% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 1.38 | 72.46376811594205% | 0.0% | -72.5% |
Home or Away Double Chance | 1.38 | 72.46376811594205% | 0.0% | -72.5% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | 1.31 | 76.33587786259541% | 0.0% | -76.3% |
Home 1X2 | 2.85 | 35.08771929824561% | 32.7% | -2.4% |
Draw 1X2 | 2.60 | 38.46153846153846% | 34.6% | -3.9% |
Away 1X2 | 2.67 | 37.453183520599254% | 32.7% | -4.8% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 1.38 | 72.46376811594205% | 0.0% | -72.5% |
Home or Away Double Chance | 1.40 | 71.42857142857143% | 0.0% | -71.4% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | 1.34 | 74.62686567164178% | 0.0% | -74.6% |
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.