Defensa Y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys

Defensa y Justicia at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Newells Old Boys on the road, with 5W 8D 6L versus 4W 7D 8L. Their goal record is also marginally better, scoring 21 and conceding 26 at home, while Newells score 18 and concede 30 away, suggesting Defensa may be more comfortable controlling the game. Recent form leans toward Defensa as well, with LLDWL in their last five compared to Newells’ DDWLD. That difference isn’t decisive, but it supports the idea that Defensa are more likely to edge the match rather than Newells taking full control. On scoring, both teams’ profiles point to a fairly open game. Defensa have 26 conceded at home and Newells have 30 conceded away, and the probabilities provided show both teams to score at 51.8% and over 2.5 goals at 47.6%, so a low-scoring, one-sided result looks less likely. Given the relatively close win probabilities (48.0% home vs 25.2% away and 26.8% draw), the home win case is plausible but not dominant, aligning with a medium risk level and the 75 confidence score.