D. La Serena vs O'Higgins

D. La Serena at home has a slightly stronger overall profile than O’Higgins away, with 4 wins in 16 at home versus O’Higgins’ 6 wins in 16 away. La Serena’s goal record is also a bit more balanced, scoring 24 and conceding 28, while O’Higgins scores 19 and concedes 24, suggesting both sides are capable of scoring but neither dominates defensively. The recent form leans toward La Serena being less consistent, with “LWLDD” compared with O’Higgins’ “LLDLL”. That pattern supports a modest edge for La Serena in this matchup, aligning with the home win probability of 50.5% versus 24.8% for an away win and 24.7% for a draw. Goal-wise, the matchup looks more likely to produce goals than a tight stalemate. Over 2.5 goals is at 55.5%, and both teams to score is at 58.0%, which fits the relatively close scoring and concession totals for both teams. With home win priced as the most likely outcome but only by a narrow margin, the risk is medium rather than low. The draw remains a meaningful alternative given the probabilities, so the home win case is plausible but not strongly one-sided.