Cusco vs UTC Cajamarca

Cusco at home has a stronger overall record than UTC Cajamarca, with 9 wins in 19 matches compared to UTC’s 4 wins in 19. Cusco’s goal record is also slightly better, scoring 26 and conceding 27, while UTC scores 22 and concedes 29, suggesting Cusco can create more chances and is marginally more stable defensively. The recent form leans toward Cusco as well, with their sequence LWWWL indicating two strong stretches of results, while UTC’s LDDLD points to more difficulty turning matches into wins. That combination supports a home win outcome more than a draw or away win, though UTC’s 7 draws show they can still be hard to fully break down. The goal-related probabilities are fairly balanced but slightly favor a more open game: over 2.5 goals is at 53.1% and both teams to score is at 54.8%. With Cusco’s home scoring and UTC’s ability to find some goals despite conceding, a narrow home win with goals at both ends looks plausible, but not guaranteed. Overall, the home win projection aligns with the matchup’s win-rate gap and the modest edge in goal performance, reflected in a medium risk profile and a 57.4% home-win probability.