Pre-match

High risk

CSM Adjud vs Sporting Lieşti

Wed, Aug 12, 02:30 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 36/100

Model verdict

High risk

Away Win

CSM Adjud (L) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.5 for Sporting Lieşti (WWDLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 36/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

36/100

Confidence

36/100

Strongest cover

81.3% probability

Risk classification

High

21.3% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

52 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CA win18.7%

Draw21.3%

SL win60%

Goals

Over 1.582.2%

Over 2.555.4%

Under 2.544.6%

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%

No46.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

CSM Adjud

0/3 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Sporting Lieşti

7/15 recent form points

WWDLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 12, 12:43 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

CSM Adjud 1-2 Sporting Lieşti

2025-03-15T14:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sporting Lieşti 6-0 CSM Adjud

2024-10-26T14:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +13.9%	5.30	18.9%	18.7%	-0.2%
	Betfair	4.75	21.1%	18.7%	-2.4%
	Marathonbet	4.65	21.5%	18.7%	-2.8%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	18.7%	-3.5%
	William Hill	4.40	22.7%	18.7%	-4.0%
	BetVictor	4.33	23.1%	18.7%	-4.4%
Draw 1X2	UnibetBest price +9.5%	4.40	22.7%	21.3%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	4.30	23.3%	21.3%	-2.0%
	Betfair	4.20	23.8%	21.3%	-2.5%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	21.3%	-3.7%
	Bet365	3.80	26.3%	21.3%	-5.0%
	BetVictor	3.40	29.4%	21.3%	-8.1%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.4%	1.60	62.5%	60.0%	-2.5%
	William Hill	1.57	63.7%	60.0%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.51	66.2%	60.0%	-6.2%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	60.0%	-6.7%
	BetVictor	1.50	66.7%	60.0%	-6.7%
	Unibet	1.43	69.9%	60.0%	-9.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +5.5%	2.12	47.2%	44.6%	-2.6%
	Bet365	2.10	47.6%	44.6%	-3.0%
	Unibet	1.98	50.5%	44.6%	-5.9%
	BetVictor	1.84	54.3%	44.6%	-9.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +4.1%	1.70	58.8%	55.4%	-3.4%
	Unibet	1.67	59.9%	55.4%	-4.5%
	Marathonbet	1.64	61.0%	55.4%	-5.6%
	BetVictor	1.52	65.8%	55.4%	-10.4%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +6.5%	2.05	48.8%	46.2%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	2.00	50.0%	46.2%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	46.2%	-8.4%
	Unibet	1.82	54.9%	46.2%	-8.7%
Yes BTTS	UnibetBest price +9.8%	1.85	54.1%	53.8%	-0.3%
	Marathonbet	1.69	59.2%	53.8%	-5.4%
	William Hill	1.67	59.9%	53.8%	-6.1%
	BetVictor	1.53	65.4%	53.8%	-11.6%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +6.2%	2.38	42.0%	0.0%	-42.0%
	Unibet	2.33	42.9%	0.0%	-42.9%
	Marathonbet	2.24	44.6%	0.0%	-44.6%
	William Hill	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	BetVictor	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.9%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Unibet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	BetVictor	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.8%	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	BetVictor	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Unibet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%

Model reasoning

Sporting Lieşti has the stronger overall results profile in the sample provided, with 3 wins and 1 draw from 6 matches, compared with CSM Adjud’s single match resulting in a loss. The away side also shows a higher scoring output, 14 goals in 6 matches versus CSM Adjud’s 0 goals in their only listed game. Defensively, Sporting Lieşti have conceded 18 goals in 6 matches, while CSM Adjud conceded 1 in their only match. With both teams’ limited clean-sheet evidence here, the match leans toward Sporting Lieşti being able to score more often than CSM Adjud, even if the away side’s defense is not dominant. The probabilities reflect this pattern: Sporting Lieşti are favored for the away win at 60.0%, while the draw is still plausible at 21.3%. Over 2.5 goals is slightly more likely than not at 55.4%, and both teams to score is also close to even at 53.8%, suggesting the game could be open rather than tightly controlled. Given CSM Adjud’s very small sample size (only 1 match listed) and Sporting Lieşti’s relatively high goals conceded, the away win case has upside but not a high level of certainty, aligning with the high-risk, moderate confidence outlook.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 12 Aug 2026 08:00 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: CSM Adjud predictions · Sporting Lieşti predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.