Cruzeiro vs Mirassol

Cruzeiro at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Mirassol on the road, with 8 wins in 21 home matches versus Mirassol’s 6 wins in 20 away matches. Cruzeiro’s recent form also looks steadier, with a sequence of WDLW LW, while Mirassol’s recent run is more mixed at WLWDW. In goal terms, both teams are relatively close, but Cruzeiro’s home profile is a bit more favorable. Cruzeiro has scored 27 and conceded 30 at home, while Mirassol has scored 23 and conceded 27 away, suggesting competitive scoring chances with Cruzeiro not dominating defensively. The market-style probabilities align with a tight match: home win is 49.9% versus draw 25.7% and away win 24.4%. With both teams to score at 53.9% and over 2.5 goals at 50.0%, the game looks more like a narrow, low-to-moderate scoring contest than a clear blowout. Overall, the home win lean fits the small edge in Cruzeiro’s home results and form, but the draw and away win probabilities remain meaningful, which is why the confidence is only moderate rather than high.