Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc

Coritiba at home has a fairly balanced record with 7 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, and their goal difference is slightly negative (25 scored, 28 conceded). Still, they’ve managed 6 clean sheets across 21 matches, which supports the idea that they can limit Chapecoense’s scoring chances. Chapecoense-sc away have struggled, with only 1 win in 20 matches and a heavy run of poor results (LLLLD in their most recent stretch). Their defensive record is weak on the road as well, conceding 41 goals while scoring 19, and they’ve kept just 1 clean sheet overall. The match profile points to Coritiba edging the contest rather than a clear blowout: home win is estimated at 59.3% versus 17.9% for an away win, with draws still a meaningful possibility at 22.8%. Over 2.5 goals is slightly more likely than not (53.2%), and both teams to score is also just above even (53.7%), suggesting Chapecoense may find some scoring opportunities even if they’re unlikely to win. Overall, the home win lean fits the home/away form gap and Chapecoense’s defensive issues, but the moderate confidence (74) and the draw probability keep the risk at a medium level.