Corinthians W vs Santos W

Corinthians W at home have been strong in the league, with 12 wins from 15 matches and a goal record of 40 scored versus 14 conceded. They also keep games under control, with 6 clean sheets, and their very recent form is notably positive (LWWWW). Santos W away are more mixed, with 5 wins from 14 and a lower scoring output (17 goals) while conceding 15. Their recent form is less consistent (WLLWW), which makes it harder for them to rely on steady results on the road. The matchup profile supports a home edge: Corinthians’ stronger defensive numbers and higher scoring rate align with the home win probability of 64.3% versus 14.9% for Santos. The draw is still plausible at 20.8%, so the result isn’t guaranteed. For goals, the likelihood of over 2.5 is slightly favorable at 55.1%, and both teams to score is close to even at 53.5%. That suggests Corinthians may be more likely to win, but the game could still produce a competitive scoreline rather than a dominant one.