Finished

High risk

Club America vs Austin

1–1Full time

Fri, Aug 14, 12:30 AMQ2 Stadium

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 39/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Club America (LWW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.3 for Austin (WW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 39/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

39/100

Confidence

39/100

Strongest cover

73.0% probability

Risk classification

High

27.0% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

CA win39.5%

Draw27%

A win33.5%

Goals

Over 1.576.3%

Over 2.551.2%

Under 2.548.8%

Both teams to score

Yes56%

No44%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Club America

6/9 recent form points

LWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Austin

6/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: No H2H · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Club America have scored 8 goals and conceded 7 across 3 matches, with no clean sheets so far. Their recent form is mixed, showing a loss in the most recent game, which fits a profile where they can concede even if they are able to find goals. Austin’s start looks stronger defensively, with 2 matches, 2 wins, 0 goals conceded, and 2 clean sheets. Offensively they’ve scored 5 goals in those 2 games, so they are capable of contributing at least one goal, even if their defense limits the opponent. With Club America having conceded in all their matches and Austin keeping clean sheets so far, the matchup leans toward both teams scoring rather than a shutout. The probabilities provided also support this direction, with both teams to score at 56.0% and over 2.5 goals at 51.2%, though the confidence is relatively low (39) and the risk is high. So BTTS Yes is a plausible lean, but it’s not strongly supported by a clear dominance from either side given Austin’s perfect defensive record versus Club America’s consistent concession rate.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 56.0% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1341 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:32 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

More predictions

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Team hubs: Club America predictions · Austin predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.