Finished

Low risk

Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II

7–2Full time

Sun, Aug 2, 08:00 PMSeatGeek Stadium

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Chicago Fire II (LLWLW) project at 2.1 expected goals versus 1.1 for FC Cincinnati II (WWLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Head-to-Head

Chicago Fire II 2-1 FC Cincinnati II

2025-09-10T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Chicago Fire II 2-1 FC Cincinnati II

2025-05-09T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Cincinnati II 1-2 Chicago Fire II

2025-03-30T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Chicago Fire II 1-1 FC Cincinnati II

2024-09-08T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

FC Cincinnati II 5-0 Chicago Fire II

2024-07-29T00:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

FC Cincinnati II 1-1 Chicago Fire II

2024-03-16T23:00:00+01:00

Model reasoning

Chicago Fire II at home have a stronger overall record than FC Cincinnati II on the road, with Chicago 10W-0D-9L versus Cincinnati’s 6W-0D-13L. Chicago also edges the goal profile, scoring 37 and conceding 31 compared with Cincinnati’s 21 scored and 36 conceded, suggesting Chicago are more likely to create and sustain attacking chances. In recent form, Chicago’s sequence is LLWLW, while Cincinnati’s is WWLLW. Both sides have shown some inconsistency, but Chicago’s ability to win more often recently aligns with the higher home-win probability of 64.3% versus 15.8% for an away win. The match also leans toward goals, with a 62.9% probability for over 2.5 goals and 58.3% for both teams to score. Chicago’s 31 conceded indicates they can be tested, while Cincinnati’s 21 scored suggests they may not always convert, but the combined profile still supports a moderate chance of goals at both ends. Overall, the home win case looks reasonable with a low risk profile and a confidence score of 77, though the draw probability of 19.9% and Cincinnati’s recent win(s) mean it’s not a lock.

Recorded forecast

Final score

7-2

Pre-kickoff call

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Chicago Fire II

6/15 recent form points

LLWLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.95
Shots on target: Unavailable

FC Cincinnati II

9/15 recent form points

WWLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.11
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +6.9%	5.65	17.7%	15.8%	-1.9%
	10Bet	5.60	17.9%	15.8%	-2.1%
	Betfair	5.50	18.2%	15.8%	-2.4%
	Unibet	5.20	19.2%	15.8%	-3.4%
	William Hill	5.00	20.0%	15.8%	-4.2%
	Bet365	4.75	21.1%	15.8%	-5.3%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +5.8%	4.50	22.2%	19.9%	-2.3%
	Betfair	4.50	22.2%	19.9%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	4.33	23.1%	19.9%	-3.2%
	10Bet	4.10	24.4%	19.9%	-4.5%
	Unibet	4.10	24.4%	19.9%	-4.5%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	19.9%	-5.1%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +2.7%	1.48	67.6%	64.3%	-3.3%
	Unibet	1.47	68.0%	64.3%	-3.7%
	10Bet	1.44	69.4%	64.3%	-5.1%
	William Hill	1.44	69.4%	64.3%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.42	70.4%	64.3%	-6.1%
	Betfair	1.40	71.4%	64.3%	-7.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.2%	2.50	40.0%	37.1%	-2.9%
	Unibet	2.48	40.3%	37.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	2.43	41.2%	37.1%	-4.1%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.0%	1.50	66.7%	62.9%	-3.8%
	Marathonbet	1.44	69.4%	62.9%	-6.5%
	Unibet	1.43	69.9%	62.9%	-7.0%
No BTTS	UnibetBest price +2.9%	2.25	44.4%	41.7%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	2.16	46.3%	41.7%	-4.6%
	William Hill	2.15	46.5%	41.7%	-4.8%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +3.0%	1.62	61.7%	58.3%	-3.4%
	Marathonbet	1.57	63.7%	58.3%	-5.4%
	Unibet	1.53	65.4%	58.3%	-7.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +11.3%	2.70	37.0%	0.0%	-37.0%
	10Bet	2.60	38.5%	0.0%	-38.5%
	Marathonbet	2.46	40.7%	0.0%	-40.7%
	William Hill	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	Unibet	2.25	44.4%	0.0%	-44.4%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.3%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	10Bet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Marathonbet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Unibet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +5.7%	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	William Hill	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Betfair	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Unibet	1.09	91.7%	0.0%	-91.7%
	10Bet	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	Marathonbet	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%

Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II

Home Win

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison