Chelsea vs Tottenham

Chelsea at home have a positive short sample, with 2 wins in 3 matches and a 6-3 goal record. They’ve also kept 1 clean sheet, and their recent form shows two wins in their last three games (LWW), which supports the idea of them edging the contest. Tottenham’s away record is steadier than their goal numbers suggest, with 2 wins in 5 and 4 goals scored overall. They’ve conceded 5 in those matches but also have 3 clean sheets, and their recent form includes a draw and a win among the last five (WDWDL), indicating they can avoid being overwhelmed. The probabilities lean toward a Chelsea home win (53.1%) with a sizable draw chance (26.2%), so the match outcome is not clear-cut. For goals, over 2.5 is only slightly below a coin-flip level (43.0%), while both teams to score is also close to even (47.5%), which points to a relatively tight game where scoring is plausible but not guaranteed. Given the modest goal totals and the overlap between draw and both-teams-to-score likelihoods, the home-win lean is reasonable but carries high uncertainty, reflected by the 41 confidence score and high risk level.