Finished

Medium risk

Chelsea vs Real Sociedad result & prediction review

3–1Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 01:00 PMStamford Bridge

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 68/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Chelsea (LLWDW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.1 for Real Sociedad (WWLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 68/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

68/100

Confidence

68/100

Strongest cover

77.2% probability

Risk classification

Medium

24.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

C win52.6%

Draw24.6%

RS win22.8%

Goals

Over 1.577.2%

Over 2.552.6%

Under 2.547.4%

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%

No44.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Chelsea

7/15 recent form points

LLWDW

xG / match: 1.79
xGA / match: 2.06
Goals / match: 2.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Real Sociedad

6/15 recent form points

WWLLL

xG / match: 1.34
xGA / match: 1.83
Goals / match: 1.43
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

C derived xG

1.81

RS derived xG

1.70

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.51. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Chelsea 3-1 Real Sociedad

2026-08-15T15:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Chelsea vs Real Sociedad. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 49.1% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1633 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:05 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Chelsea predictions · Real Sociedad predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.