Chelsea vs AC Milan

Chelsea have a stronger recent run than AC Milan, with results reading LWW compared with Milan’s LWDL. In their three matches, Chelsea have 6 goals scored and 3 conceded, including 1 clean sheet, which suggests they can limit Milan’s scoring chances. Milan’s away record is less convincing, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, and they’ve conceded 8 goals across four matches while keeping no clean sheets. Their form includes a draw, but the two defeats and higher goals conceded point to more vulnerability when facing a home side that has been able to keep games tighter. The overall goal outlook is fairly balanced, with both teams to score slightly favored and over 2.5 goals at just over a coin-flip level. That aligns with Chelsea’s ability to score, but also with the possibility that Milan can find goals, even if they’re not consistently shutting opponents out. So a Chelsea home win is the lean, but the confidence is modest and the risk is high given Milan’s ability to draw and the relatively open scoring profile implied by the goal probabilities.