Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Cerezo Osaka have the stronger overall record at home, with 12 wins from 20 matches compared with Fagiano Okayama’s 9 wins from 20 away matches. Cerezo also have the better goal difference, scoring 35 and conceding 24 versus Okayama’s 29 scored and 30 conceded, which supports the case for a home edge. The recent form also leans slightly toward Cerezo Osaka, with their run reading WWWDW, while Fagiano Okayama’s is WWLDW. That suggests Cerezo are more consistent in turning matches into wins, even if both sides have shown they can pick up points. On scoring, Cerezo’s 35 goals and Okayama’s 30 conceded indicate a reasonable chance of goals at both ends, and the matchup profile points to over 2.5 goals being more likely than not. The both teams to score probability is also slightly favored, aligning with the idea that Okayama can contribute offensively despite their weaker defensive record. Overall, the home win outcome is supported by the combination of better results and better goal difference for Cerezo, but the draw and away win remain plausible given Okayama’s ability to win some matches and the moderate goal expectations.