Celta Vigo vs Academico Viseu
2–2Full timeWed, Jul 29, 09:00 AM
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
Celta Vigo (LLLW) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1.4 for Academico Viseu (DLDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped. The strongest fair-price edge is Draw or Away at 23.3 percentage points.
Confidence
35/100
Confidence
35/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Away 1X2 | UnibetBest price +34.2% | 6.00 | 16.7% | 20.9% | +4.2% |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 21.7% | 20.9% | -0.8% | |
AI Reasoning
Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Celta Vigo vs Academico Viseu.
Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped.
Market angle: Draw or Away shows a 23.3% value gap.
Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Recorded forecast
Final score
2-2
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 54.1% → Lost
Ranked probability score
0.1705 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:51 UTC, before kickoff at 1.70 (William Hill), by livewin-hybrid-v0.4. Counted in the public track record.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
