Cambodia vs Timor-Leste
Mon, Aug 3, 10:30 AMMorodok Techo National Stadium
Model verdict
High risk
BTTS Yes
Cambodia (LL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.4 for Timor-Leste (WWLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
35/100
Confidence
35/100
Head-to-Head
Cambodia 2-1 Timor-Leste
2024-12-17T11:45:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Cambodia 2-1 Timor-Leste
2022-06-02T14:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Cambodia 2-2 Timor-Leste
2018-10-12T13:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Cambodia 3-2 Timor-Leste
2016-10-21T13:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Timor-Leste 2-3 Cambodia
2014-10-16T10:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Model reasoning
Timor-Leste have been more effective in attack than Cambodia in this sample, scoring 6 goals in 5 matches versus Cambodia’s 2 in 2 matches. Timor-Leste also have a higher win rate (2W out of 5) compared with Cambodia’s 0W in 2 matches, which supports the idea that Cambodia may struggle to keep the game quiet.
Defensively, Cambodia have conceded 7 goals in 2 matches with zero clean sheets, while Timor-Leste have conceded 13 in 5 matches and have managed 1 clean sheet. With Cambodia’s defensive record being particularly leaky, the matchup profile aligns with both teams finding the net.
The probabilities reflect this: both teams to score is 58.3%, and over 2.5 goals is 54.1%. Even though the overall confidence is modest (35) and the risk is high, the statistical balance points toward BTTS Yes rather than a low-scoring outcome.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Mon, 03 Aug 2026 01:32 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
