Buxoro vs Neftchi
AI prediction
Away Win
Confidence 74/100
Away Win
Buxoro (WLWDW) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1.4 for Neftchi (WDDWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 74/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
74/100
Strongest cover
X2
83.6% probability
Risk classification
Medium
24.2% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
54 price observations
Full distribution
Market probabilities
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Evidence ledger
Buxoro
10/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 1.35
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Neftchi
11/15 recent form points
- xG / match
- Unavailable
- xGA / match
- Unavailable
- Goals / match
- 2.41
- Shots on target
- Unavailable
Matchup xG signal
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.
Price interpretation
Value read
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Model card
- Version
- livewin-hybrid-v0.6
- Data source
- Licensed live data feed
- Statistics baseline
- 2026 season
- Odds timestamp
- Aug 18, 12:10 PM UTC
- Optional coverage
- H2H available · odds available
- Confidence
- Signal agreement score
- Risk
- Medium · uncertainty remains
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.
Head-to-Head
Neftchi 2-1 Buxoro
2026-07-16T17:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Buxoro 1-1 Neftchi
2025-11-07T14:00:00+01:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Neftchi 1-0 Buxoro
2025-06-20T17:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Neftchi 3-0 Buxoro
2023-09-27T16:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Buxoro 2-2 Neftchi
2023-04-21T15:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Buxoro 0-0 Neftchi
2018-07-19T17:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Neftchi 0-1 Buxoro
2018-04-12T17:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Neftchi 1-2 Buxoro
2017-09-07T14:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Buxoro 3-0 Neftchi
2017-04-07T14:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Neftchi 0-1 Buxoro
2016-10-29T12:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home 1X2 | BetVictorBest price +4.4% | 5.50 | 18.2% | 16.4% | -1.8% |
| Marathonbet | 5.45 | 18.3% | 16.4% | -1.9% | |
| 10Bet | 5.40 | 18.5% | 16.4% | -2.1% | |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 19.0% | 16.4% | -2.6% | |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 20.0% | 16.4% | -3.6% | |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 20.0% | 16.4% | -3.6% | |
Draw 1X2 | BetfairBest price +5.2% | 3.80 | 26.3% | 24.2% | -2.1% |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 26.3% | 24.2% | -2.1% | |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 27.2% | 24.2% | -3.0% | |
| 10Bet | 3.60 | 27.8% | 24.2% | -3.6% | |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24.2% | -4.4% | |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 30.3% | 24.2% | -6.1% | |
Away 1X2 | Bet365Best price +4.7% | 1.62 | 61.7% | 59.4% | -2.3% |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 64.5% | 59.4% | -5.1% | |
| 10Bet | 1.53 | 65.4% | 59.4% | -6.0% | |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 65.4% | 59.4% | -6.0% | |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 65.4% | 59.4% | -6.0% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 65.8% | 59.4% | -6.4% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +4.5% | 2.00 | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 52.4% | 48.6% | -3.8% | |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 52.4% | 48.6% | -3.8% | |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | -4.0% | |
| 10Bet | 1.85 | 54.1% | 48.6% | -5.5% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +1.0% | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | -4.2% |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | -4.2% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 56.2% | 51.4% | -4.8% | |
| BetVictor | 1.78 | 56.2% | 51.4% | -4.8% | |
| 10Bet | 1.75 | 57.1% | 51.4% | -5.7% | |
No BTTS | BetfairBest price +2.8% | 1.91 | 52.4% | 49.5% | -2.9% |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 54.1% | 49.5% | -4.6% | |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 54.1% | 49.5% | -4.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 54.9% | 49.5% | -5.4% | |
Yes BTTS | William HillBest price +0.5% | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.5% | -4.1% |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.5% | -4.1% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.5% | -4.4% | |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 55.6% | 50.5% | -5.1% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 10BetBest price +4.4% | 2.35 | 42.6% | 0.0% | -42.6% |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 43.5% | 0.0% | -43.5% | |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 43.5% | 0.0% | -43.5% | |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 44.4% | 0.0% | -44.4% | |
| Marathonbet | 2.21 | 45.2% | 0.0% | -45.2% | |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 0.0% | -47.6% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +3.2% | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% | |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 83.3% | 0.0% | -83.3% | |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 83.3% | 0.0% | -83.3% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 84.0% | 0.0% | -84.0% | |
| 10Bet | 1.18 | 84.7% | 0.0% | -84.7% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | BetVictorBest price +2.4% | 1.13 | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5% |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 89.3% | 0.0% | -89.3% | |
| Bet365 | 1.11 | 90.1% | 0.0% | -90.1% | |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 90.1% | 0.0% | -90.1% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.08 | 92.6% | 0.0% | -92.6% | |
| 10Bet | 1.07 | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5% |
Model reasoning
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Tue, 18 Aug 2026 14:01 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
More predictions
Team hubs: Buxoro predictions · Neftchi predictions
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.