Finished

Medium risk

Buxoro vs Lokomotiv

2–1Full time

Sat, Aug 1, 03:30 PMBuxoro FA Stadioni

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Buxoro (WWLWL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Lokomotiv (LWDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 60/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

60/100

Confidence

60/100

Head-to-Head

Buxoro 2-0 Lokomotiv

2025-04-23T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Buxoro 1-3 Lokomotiv

2020-09-20T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Lokomotiv 3-0 Buxoro

2020-03-15T13:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Lokomotiv 2-0 Buxoro

2019-10-19T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Buxoro 0-2 Lokomotiv

2019-04-18T16:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Lokomotiv 4-0 Buxoro

2018-11-09T13:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Model reasoning

Buxoro at home have been fairly balanced in scoring and defending, with 17 goals in 14 matches and 15 conceded, plus 5 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed but not overly high-scoring, with results reading WWLWL, which suggests they can win without consistently producing many goals. Lokomotiv away have a slight edge in attack, scoring 21 in 14, but they also concede 19 and keep only 3 clean sheets. Their recent run is also mixed (LWDDW), indicating they can be competitive, yet not reliably dominant in a way that forces frequent high totals. With both teams’ season goal profiles close to the middle and relatively limited clean sheets, the match looks more like a controlled contest than a guaranteed goal-fest. The probabilities provided lean toward under 2.5 goals indirectly, since both teams to score is only 51.4% and over 2.5 goals is 45.1%, making the under a reasonable fit with a medium level of risk. So the Under 2.5 Goals call aligns with the overall scoring balance shown by the season totals and the modest likelihood of reaching three or more goals, though it’s not strongly one-sided given the away team’s ability to score.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-1

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Buxoro

9/15 recent form points

WWLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.21
Shots on target: Unavailable

Lokomotiv

8/15 recent form points

LWDDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/9 and Over 2.5 in 5/9.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetVictorBest price +3.0%	3.13	31.9%	29.1%	-2.8%
	Bet365	3.10	32.3%	29.1%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.10	32.3%	29.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	3.02	33.1%	29.1%	-4.0%
	10Bet	3.00	33.3%	29.1%	-4.2%
	William Hill	2.88	34.7%	29.1%	-5.6%
Home 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +2.5%	3.02	33.1%	31.0%	-2.1%
	BetVictor	3.00	33.3%	31.0%	-2.3%
	10Bet	2.95	33.9%	31.0%	-2.9%
	William Hill	2.90	34.5%	31.0%	-3.5%
	Bet365	2.90	34.5%	31.0%	-3.5%
	Betfair	2.90	34.5%	31.0%	-3.5%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +1.0%	2.25	44.4%	39.9%	-4.5%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	39.9%	-4.5%
	BetVictor	2.25	44.4%	39.9%	-4.5%
	Marathonbet	2.22	45.0%	39.9%	-5.1%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	39.9%	-5.6%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	39.9%	-5.6%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.0%	2.10	47.6%	45.1%	-2.5%
	Betfair	2.10	47.6%	45.1%	-2.5%
	BetVictor	2.05	48.8%	45.1%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	2.04	49.0%	45.1%	-3.9%
	10Bet	2.00	50.0%	45.1%	-4.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +1.4%	1.70	58.8%	54.9%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	1.70	58.8%	54.9%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.68	59.5%	54.9%	-4.6%
	10Bet	1.65	60.6%	54.9%	-5.7%
	Betfair	1.65	60.6%	54.9%	-5.7%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.6%	1.91	52.4%	48.6%	-3.8%
	BetVictor	1.90	52.6%	48.6%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	48.6%	-5.2%
	William Hill	1.85	54.1%	48.6%	-5.5%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.0%	1.80	55.6%	51.4%	-4.2%
	BetVictor	1.80	55.6%	51.4%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.78	56.2%	51.4%	-4.8%
	William Hill	1.75	57.1%	51.4%	-5.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +1.8%	1.55	64.5%	0.0%	-64.5%
	William Hill	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Bet365	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Betfair	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	Marathonbet	1.52	65.8%	0.0%	-65.8%
	10Bet	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.0%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	BetVictor	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.3%	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Betfair	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	BetVictor	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	William Hill	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Marathonbet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%

Buxoro vs Lokomotiv

Under 2.5 Goals

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison