Burnley vs Notts County

Burnley at home look slightly more likely to win, with a 1W 0D 1L record across 2 matches and an even goal record of 3 scored and 3 conceded. Notts County away have a 0W 0D 1L record and have scored 0 goals while conceding 1, which keeps their attacking output low in the sample. The draw is also a meaningful possibility, with the probabilities showing 22.7% for a level result. Still, the home win probability is higher at 58.3%, aligning with Burnley’s better overall match outcome record and slightly stronger goal production. For goals, the match is close to a coin flip for over 2.5 goals at 50.4%. Both teams to score is slightly more favored at 53.0%, which fits the idea that Burnley’s defense has allowed goals in their two matches and Notts County have managed to concede only 1 in their one away match, suggesting they could still find a way to score. Overall, the home win lean is reasonable but not strong, reflected by the 35 confidence score and the high risk level.