Finished

Low risk

Brunswick Juventus FC vs Melbourne Srbija

1–1Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 09:30 AM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 77/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Brunswick Juventus FC (WWWDD) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.1 for Melbourne Srbija (LWLWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

81.0% probability

Risk classification

Low

21.9% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

50 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BJF win59.1%

Draw21.9%

MS win19%

Goals

Over 1.575.9%

Over 2.560.5%

Under 2.539.5%

Both teams to score

Yes57.9%

No42.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Brunswick Juventus FC

11/15 recent form points

WWWDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.88
Shots on target: Unavailable

Melbourne Srbija

7/15 recent form points

LWLWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.17
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 0/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 15, 08:50 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Brunswick Juventus FC 1-1 Melbourne Srbija

2026-08-15T11:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Melbourne Srbija 1-0 Brunswick Juventus FC

2026-05-02T10:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +10.8%	5.00	20.0%	19.0%	-1.0%
	Betfair	5.00	20.0%	19.0%	-1.0%
	Bet365	4.75	21.1%	19.0%	-2.1%
	William Hill	4.60	21.7%	19.0%	-2.7%
	BetVictor	4.33	23.1%	19.0%	-4.1%
	Unibet	3.40	29.4%	19.0%	-10.4%
Draw 1X2	BetfairBest price +7.7%	4.20	23.8%	21.9%	-1.9%
	Marathonbet	4.15	24.1%	21.9%	-2.2%
	Bet365	4.00	25.0%	21.9%	-3.1%
	William Hill	3.75	26.7%	21.9%	-4.8%
	Unibet	3.70	27.0%	21.9%	-5.1%
	BetVictor	3.60	27.8%	21.9%	-5.9%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +14.8%	1.78	56.2%	59.1%	+2.9%
	William Hill	1.55	64.5%	59.1%	-5.4%
	Bet365	1.53	65.4%	59.1%	-6.3%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	59.1%	-7.6%
	Marathonbet	1.49	67.1%	59.1%	-8.0%
	BetVictor	1.45	69.0%	59.1%	-9.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +14.2%	2.65	37.7%	39.5%	+1.8%
	Bet365	2.35	42.6%	39.5%	-3.1%
	Marathonbet	2.28	43.9%	39.5%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	2.00	50.0%	39.5%	-10.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.6%	1.57	63.7%	60.5%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.50	66.7%	60.5%	-6.2%
	BetVictor	1.44	69.4%	60.5%	-8.9%
	Unibet	1.38	72.5%	60.5%	-12.0%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +8.2%	2.30	43.5%	42.1%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	2.15	46.5%	42.1%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	1.93	51.8%	42.1%	-9.7%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +3.5%	1.58	63.3%	57.9%	-5.4%
	William Hill	1.53	65.4%	57.9%	-7.5%
	BetVictor	1.47	68.0%	57.9%	-10.1%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +10.3%	2.40	41.7%	0.0%	-41.7%
	Marathonbet	2.27	44.1%	0.0%	-44.1%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	0.0%	-44.4%
	BetVictor	2.20	45.5%	0.0%	-45.5%
	William Hill	2.15	46.5%	0.0%	-46.5%
	Unibet	1.78	56.2%	0.0%	-56.2%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +5.5%	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	BetVictor	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	UnibetBest price +4.7%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	William Hill	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	BetVictor	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.10	90.9%	0.0%	-90.9%

Model reasoning

Brunswick Juventus FC have the stronger overall record at home, with 15 wins from 24 matches compared with Melbourne Srbija’s 11 wins from 24. Brunswick also have the better goal difference, scoring 45 and conceding 31 versus Melbourne’s 28 scored and 25 conceded, which supports a home edge. The recent form also leans Brunswick, with a run of WWWDD, while Melbourne’s latest results are more mixed at LWLWD. That combination of better form and stronger scoring/conceding profile makes a Brunswick win more likely than a draw or an away result. The goal outlook points to a game with at least moderate scoring. Brunswick’s season scoring rate and both teams’ concession numbers align with a 60.5% chance of over 2.5 goals, and the 57.9% probability for both teams to score suggests Brunswick may not keep a clean sheet every time. Overall, the matchup profile supports Brunswick Juventus FC edging the result, with the draw still a meaningful possibility given Melbourne’s 3 draws and Brunswick’s 2 draws in their record.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-1

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 55.6% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.1777 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:23 UTC, before kickoff at 1.78 (Unibet), by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Brunswick Juventus FC predictions · Melbourne Srbija predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.