Botafogo vs Fluminense

Botafogo at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Fluminense on the road, with 8W 5D 7L in 20 matches versus 9W 7D 5L in 21. Their goal profile is also marginally better, scoring 34 and conceding 32, while Fluminense scores 30 and concedes 25, suggesting both sides can create chances but Botafogo’s home edge is meaningful. The recent form leans toward Botafogo more than Fluminense. Botafogo’s run is DLWDW, while Fluminense’s is LDDDD, which indicates Fluminense has struggled to turn matches into wins recently and has been more prone to low-impact results. The match also points toward goals. The probabilities provided show over 2.5 goals at 55.6% and both teams to score at 58.5%, which aligns with Botafogo’s relatively balanced scoring/conceding and Fluminense’s ability to keep games from becoming completely one-sided. Given the home win probability of 48.8% versus 26.3% for an away win, the home side is the more likely outcome, but it’s not dominant. With a medium risk level and a draw probability of 24.9%, the main uncertainty is that Fluminense’s recent pattern of draws could keep the game tighter than expected.