Finished

High risk

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Schalke 04 U19

1–0Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 08:45 AM

AI prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Confidence 57/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

High risk

Over 2.5 Goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 (WLLDW) project at 2.2 expected goals versus 1.6 for Schalke 04 U19 (WLDLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 57/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

57/100

Confidence

57/100

Strongest cover

78.4% probability

Risk classification

High

21.6% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

40 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

BDU win50.8%

Draw21.6%

S0U win27.6%

Goals

Over 1.589.7%

Over 2.569.5%

Under 2.530.5%

Both teams to score

Yes68.8%

No31.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Borussia Dortmund U19

7/15 recent form points

WLLDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.77
Shots on target: Unavailable

Schalke 04 U19

4/15 recent form points

WLDLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.24
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 7/10 and Over 2.5 in 9/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2025 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 15, 07:33 AM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Borussia Dortmund U19 3-3 Schalke 04 U19

2026-04-19T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Schalke 04 U19 1-4 Borussia Dortmund U19

2026-03-01T11:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund U19 3-3 Schalke 04 U19

2024-10-19T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Schalke 04 U19 1-3 Borussia Dortmund U19

2024-08-10T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund U19 3-0 Schalke 04 U19

2024-05-05T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Schalke 04 U19 1-2 Borussia Dortmund U19

2024-02-21T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund U19 3-1 Schalke 04 U19

2022-08-14T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Schalke 04 U19 1-0 Borussia Dortmund U19

2022-05-15T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Borussia Dortmund U19 5-1 Schalke 04 U19

2022-05-07T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund U19 4-0 Schalke 04 U19

2021-10-24T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	PinnacleBest price +4.6%	4.20	23.8%	21.6%	-2.2%
	Dafabet	4.10	24.4%	21.6%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	4.00	25.0%	21.6%	-3.4%
	1xBet	4.00	25.0%	21.6%	-3.4%
	10Bet	3.90	25.6%	21.6%	-4.0%
	Bet365	3.90	25.6%	21.6%	-4.0%
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +6.3%	3.42	29.2%	27.6%	-1.6%
	Marathonbet	3.36	29.8%	27.6%	-2.2%
	Pinnacle	3.32	30.1%	27.6%	-2.5%
	Dafabet	3.30	30.3%	27.6%	-2.7%
	10Bet	3.10	32.3%	27.6%	-4.7%
	Bet365	2.80	35.7%	27.6%	-8.1%
Home 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.8%	2.00	50.0%	50.8%	+0.8%
	10Bet	1.85	54.1%	50.8%	-3.3%
	Pinnacle	1.81	55.2%	50.8%	-4.4%
	Dafabet	1.81	55.2%	50.8%	-4.4%
	1xBet	1.79	55.9%	50.8%	-5.1%
	Marathonbet	1.77	56.5%	50.8%	-5.7%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.7%	3.00	33.3%	30.5%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	2.97	33.7%	30.5%	-3.2%
	1xBet	2.97	33.7%	30.5%	-3.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.0%	1.36	73.5%	69.5%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.30	76.9%	69.5%	-7.4%
	1xBet	1.30	76.9%	69.5%	-7.4%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +1.2%	2.95	33.9%	31.2%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	2.88	34.7%	31.2%	-3.5%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.33	75.2%	68.8%	-6.4%
	1xBet	1.33	75.2%	68.8%	-6.4%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.1%	1.85	54.1%	0.0%	-54.1%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	1xBet	1.83	54.6%	0.0%	-54.6%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	0.0%	-59.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +5.6%	1.33	75.2%	0.0%	-75.2%
	10Bet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
	1xBet	1.23	81.3%	0.0%	-81.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +1.5%	1.18	84.7%	0.0%	-84.7%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	1xBet	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	10Bet	1.15	87.0%	0.0%	-87.0%

Model reasoning

Dortmund U19 have scored 61 goals in 22 matches and conceded 40, while Schalke 04 U19 have scored 56 in 25 and conceded 39. Both sides’ goal totals suggest regular scoring rather than tight, low-event games. The clean sheet counts are relatively limited for both teams, with Dortmund keeping 4 shutouts and Schalke 7. That profile aligns with the high likelihood of at least three total goals, reflected in the over 2.5 goals probability of 69.5%. Recent form is mixed for both, with Dortmund’s sequence WLLDW and Schalke’s WLDLL, which can point to inconsistency at either end. Even so, the overall season scoring and concession rates support the expectation that both teams can contribute, consistent with both teams to score at 68.8%. With over 2.5 goals at 69.5% and a confidence score of 57, the call leans toward goals but still carries high risk, since neither team is consistently shutting opponents out.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-0

Pre-kickoff call

Over 2.5 Goals · 69.5%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

More predictions

All U19 Bundesliga predictions →

Team hubs: Borussia Dortmund U19 predictions · Schalke 04 U19 predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.