Bolívar vs Oriente Petrolero

Bolívar at home looks slightly more reliable than Oriente Petrolero away. Bolívar’s 6W 3D 3L record and stronger goal difference (26 scored, 12 conceded) suggest they can control the match more often, while Oriente’s 5W 2D 5L away record is more mixed. The scoring profile also leans toward Bolívar. Bolívar has 4 clean sheets in 12 matches and concedes relatively little (12 total), whereas Oriente has only 2 clean sheets and a more even goals conceded tally (16). That combination supports a home edge without making it a lock. The probabilities reflect this balance: home win is 59.8% versus 22.4% for a draw and 17.8% for an away win. There’s also a moderate chance of a higher-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 55.4% and both teams to score at 55.2%, which keeps the risk at a medium level rather than low. Overall, the home win call aligns with Bolívar’s better defensive record and goal output, but the draw and both-teams-to-score likelihood suggest the match could still be competitive.