UEFA Champions League
Finished
High risk

Bodo/Glimt vs Union St. Gilloise

3–2Full time
Tue, Aug 11, 04:00 PMAspmyra Stadion

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 53/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Bodo/Glimt (WWWWL) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 1.1 for Union St. Gilloise (LWLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 53/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

53/100

Confidence
53/100

Strongest cover

1X

80.8% probability

Risk classification

High

22.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

B win58.6%
Draw22.2%
USG win19.2%

Goals

Over 1.581.8%
Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Bodo/Glimt

12/15 recent form points

WWWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Union St. Gilloise

6/15 recent form points

LWLLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/2 and Over 2.5 in 1/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Union St. Gilloise 3-3 Bodo/Glimt

2026-08-04T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Bodo/Glimt

2024-10-03T21:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Bodo/Glimt at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Union St. Gilloise on the road, with 6 wins from 14 matches versus 3 wins from 8. Their goal balance is also better, scoring 28 and conceding 24, while Union St. Gilloise have scored 8 and conceded 17 away, suggesting Bodo/Glimt should have the more consistent attacking edge. Recent form leans toward Bodo/Glimt as well, with four straight wins before a loss (WWWWL). Union St. Gilloise’s away run is more mixed, with a loss-heavy sequence (LWLLW), which fits the lower away-win probability. The goal indicators point to a match with a decent chance of scoring. Bodo/Glimt’s home profile includes 2 clean sheets in 14, and Union St. Gilloise have 2 clean sheets in 8, so both sides can keep it tight at times, but the probabilities still favor over 2.5 goals (59.4%) and both teams to score (58.7%). With home win at 58.6% and away win at 19.2%, the home side is the likelier outcome, but the confidence is only moderate (53) and the risk is high, reflecting the relatively close goal-scoring expectations and Union St. Gilloise’s ability to avoid defeat in some away matches.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-2

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 58.6%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

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Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.