Live

Medium risk

Be1 NFA vs Jonava

0–042′

Fri, Jul 31, 03:30 PM

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 72/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Be1 NFA (WLWWL) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1 for Jonava (DWLLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence

72/100

Head-to-Head

Jonava 2-2 Be1 NFA

2026-03-18T17:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Jonava 2-1 Be1 NFA

2025-08-02T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Be1 NFA 0-0 Jonava

2025-03-28T17:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Be1 NFA 4-1 Jonava

2023-10-27T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Jonava 1-5 Be1 NFA

2023-06-09T18:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

AI Reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Be1 NFA vs Jonava. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: no qualified value edge clears the fair-price threshold. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 31 Jul 2026 13:08 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Be1 NFA

9/15 recent form points

WLWWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.81
Shots on target: Unavailable

Jonava

7/15 recent form points

DWLLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.18
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/5 and Over 2.5 in 4/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +7.3%	4.40	22.7%	20.7%	-2.0%
	Unibet	4.20	23.8%	20.7%	-3.1%
	Betfair	4.20	23.8%	20.7%	-3.1%
	William Hill	4.00	25.0%	20.7%	-4.3%
	Bet365	4.00	25.0%	20.7%	-4.3%
	10Bet	3.80	26.3%	20.7%	-5.6%
Draw 1X2	UnibetBest price +3.1%	3.60	27.8%	24.7%	-3.1%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	24.7%	-3.1%
	10Bet	3.50	28.6%	24.7%	-3.9%
	Bet365	3.50	28.6%	24.7%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	3.45	29.0%	24.7%	-4.3%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	24.7%	-5.6%
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +2.8%	1.75	57.1%	54.6%	-2.5%
	William Hill	1.70	58.8%	54.6%	-4.2%
	Bet365	1.70	58.8%	54.6%	-4.2%
	Betfair	1.70	58.8%	54.6%	-4.2%
	Marathonbet	1.68	59.5%	54.6%	-4.9%
	Unibet	1.68	59.5%	54.6%	-4.9%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +3.7%	1.98	50.5%	48.3%	-2.2%
	Betfair	1.91	52.4%	48.3%	-4.1%
	10Bet	1.90	52.6%	48.3%	-4.3%
	Bet365	1.90	52.6%	48.3%	-4.3%
	Marathonbet	1.86	53.8%	48.3%	-5.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.4%	1.90	52.6%	51.7%	-0.9%
	Marathonbet	1.83	54.6%	51.7%	-2.9%
	Betfair	1.80	55.6%	51.7%	-3.9%
	10Bet	1.73	57.8%	51.7%	-6.1%
	Unibet	1.67	59.9%	51.7%	-8.2%
No BTTS	UnibetBest price +3.9%	2.04	49.0%	46.8%	-2.2%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	46.8%	-3.2%
	William Hill	1.91	52.4%	46.8%	-5.6%
	Marathonbet	1.90	52.6%	46.8%	-5.8%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.2%	1.75	57.1%	53.2%	-3.9%
	Marathonbet	1.75	57.1%	53.2%	-3.9%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	53.2%	-3.9%
	Unibet	1.67	59.9%	53.2%	-6.7%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +2.7%	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	10Bet	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	William Hill	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	0.0%	-51.3%
	Marathonbet	1.94	51.5%	0.0%	-51.5%
	Unibet	1.89	52.9%	0.0%	-52.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.7%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Betfair	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Unibet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +3.2%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Unibet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Marathonbet	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%

Be1 NFA vs Jonava

Home Win

Head-to-Head

AI Reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison