Bayer Leverkusen vs Sevilla

Leverkusen at home have scored 10 in 6 matches and conceded 8, with 3 clean sheets, and their recent run includes three wins in five but also a recent loss. Sevilla away have scored 7 in 6 matches and conceded only 3, also with 3 clean sheets, and their recent form is stronger with four wins in five. The goal profile points toward fewer goals. Leverkusen’s average output is about 1.7 scored per match and about 1.3 conceded, while Sevilla’s is about 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. Sevilla’s low concession rate away is especially relevant for keeping totals down. The probabilities align with that direction: over 2.5 goals is at 41.3%, while under 2.5 is the implied lean. Both teams to score is 48.1%, which suggests it’s not a clear “yes” for goals at both ends, even though it’s close to even. With a confidence score of 45 and a high risk level, this looks more like a cautious under than a strong lock. If either side breaks their usual pattern and the match opens up, the under could be pressured, but the current scoring and concession stats favor staying under 2.5.