Bartolomé Mitre vs Sarmiento de La Banda

Bartolomé Mitre have been relatively solid defensively, conceding 9 goals in 18 matches and keeping 10 clean sheets. Their recent form includes several low-output results (LWLLD), and their season scoring total is modest at 14 goals, which points toward games where scoring may be limited. Sarmiento de La Banda score a bit more (18 goals in 17 matches) but also allow more (16 conceded). Their recent form (WLWDD) contains multiple draws, and with 9 clean sheets across the season, they can still keep matches from turning into high-scoring affairs. Putting both profiles together, the matchup leans toward fewer goals rather than a shootout. The probabilities provided support this, with under 2.5 goals implied by the relatively low over 2.5 likelihood (31.0%) and a moderate chance of both teams scoring (38.6%), suggesting that even if one side scores, it may not be a multi-goal exchange. With a 70 confidence score and medium risk, the main uncertainty is whether Sarmiento’s higher scoring rate (18 goals) translates into a second goal for both teams. Still, the combination of Mitre’s defensive record and the draw-heavy recent pattern makes an Under 2.5 Goals outcome the more balanced fit.