Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama

Bahia at home has a stronger overall record than Vasco away, with Bahia going 8W 8D 5L across 21 matches versus Vasco’s 5W 6D 9L across 20 away matches. Bahia’s goal profile is also slightly better, scoring 29 and conceding 25, while Vasco scores 23 and concedes 31, suggesting Bahia can create more and concede less. The recent form leans toward Bahia as well. Bahia’s last five results are WWDDD, while Vasco’s are LLLLD with only one draw in the sequence, which points to Vasco struggling to turn matches into positive outcomes. For match dynamics, both teams to score is slightly favored (53.0%), and over 2.5 goals is just above even (52.0%). That combination fits a game where Bahia may edge the result, but Vasco’s ability to find goals isn’t ruled out entirely. Overall, the home win case is supported by the better record, better defensive concession rate, and stronger recent form, with the confidence score at 71 and a medium risk level reflecting the relatively close goal-based probabilities.