Austin vs Puebla

Austin at home has started strongly in its limited sample, winning its only match and keeping a clean sheet while scoring 2 goals. That gives it an early edge in both results and defensive solidity, which aligns with the home win leaning at 56.4%. Puebla’s away record is mixed, with 2 wins and 2 losses across four matches, and it has scored 6 while conceding 5. Its recent form shows inconsistency (WLWL), which helps explain why the draw is still relatively plausible at 24.1% rather than the match being dominated by either side. The goal outlook is less clear-cut. Both teams to score is slightly favored at 49.3%, and over 2.5 goals sits at 45.3%, suggesting a fairly balanced chance of a tighter game versus a more open one. With home win probability only moderately higher and the overall goal indicators near the middle, the confidence is limited (35) and the risk is high, so the home win case looks more like a lean than a strong conviction.