Auda vs Ogre United
Mon, Aug 3, 03:00 PMSkonto stadions
Model verdict
Low risk
Home Win
Auda (WDLDW) project at 2.2 expected goals versus 0.9 for Ogre United (WLWLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.
Confidence
77/100
Confidence
77/100
Head-to-Head
Auda 2-0 Ogre United
2026-05-30T16:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Ogre United 1-1 Auda
2026-04-17T18:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Auda at home looks stronger in overall results, with 13 wins from 23 matches compared to Ogre United’s 3 wins from 24 away matches. Auda also has the better goal profile, scoring 38 and conceding 26, while Ogre United scores 23 and concedes 61, suggesting Auda should create more scoring chances and face less defensive pressure.
The recent form supports that direction. Auda’s run is WDLDW, while Ogre United’s is WLWLD, but the away side’s season-long defensive record (61 conceded) makes it harder for them to consistently keep matches close.
The goal-related indicators point toward a higher-scoring game than a tight stalemate. Auda’s stronger attack and Ogre United’s heavy concession rate align with a 61.6% lean to over 2.5 goals, and the 55.2% chance for both teams to score suggests Ogre United may still find some scoring opportunities even if they struggle overall.
With the home win probability at 70.0% and a low risk level, the most reasonable expectation is an Auda win, though the draw probability (18.1%) means it’s not guaranteed to be one-sided.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Mon, 03 Aug 2026 05:53 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
