Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Once Caldas W

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home have struggled overall with 4 wins from 15, but their recent run includes two wins in the last five (LLLWW). They also have a clearer defensive profile than their goal totals suggest, with 4 clean sheets, while Once Caldas W have 5 clean sheets despite only 1 win in 15 away matches. Once Caldas W’s away record is weak (1W 5D 9L) and they have scored only 6 goals in 15, which limits their upside in a matchup where Bucaramanga W are more likely to avoid a loss. The draw probability is still meaningful at 26.3%, reflecting that Once Caldas can be hard to break down at times. The goal outlook is mixed: both teams to score is slightly favored at 49.0%, and over 2.5 goals is below coin-flip at 44.2%. With Bucaramanga W conceding 33 and Once Caldas W scoring 6, a lower-scoring game or a narrow result is plausible, which aligns with the medium risk level. Overall, the home win lean is supported by the relative away scoring weakness of Once Caldas W and Bucaramanga W’s recent improvement, giving a 51.7% home win probability, but it’s not strong enough to be confident given the draw likelihood and the modest goal expectations.